Gold and silver prices are set for a cautious week ahead, with market analysts anticipating largely steady gold prices while silver may continue to outperform amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated crude oil prices. The trajectory of precious metals will closely follow developments in the US-Iran negotiations, which have once again become a focal point for investors globally. Pranav Mer, Vice President of EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd., noted, “Gold price momentum next week looks sideways, while silver still looks positive as focus will again be on the peace negotiations between the US and Iran to end the war.”
Investors are also closely tracking a series of key economic indicators from the United States, including GDP data, housing market numbers, consumer confidence figures, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation print. These releases are expected to provide critical signals regarding the Federal Reserve’s next policy move, especially as the central bank navigates persistent inflation pressures and market volatility. The recent leadership change at the Fed adds another layer of scrutiny, with Kevin Warsh formally succeeding Jerome Powell as head of the US central bank on Friday.
Domestic commodity futures markets in India will experience reduced trading activity on Thursday morning due to Bakri Id, which may temporarily influence liquidity and price movements in the market. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures closed the previous week at ₹1.58 lakh per 10 grams after recording marginal gains, while silver futures settled lower at ₹2.71 lakh per kilogram. Jateen Trivedi, Vice President Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency at LKP Securities, explained that gold traded in a range-bound manner last week, posting marginal gains of around 0.40% on the MCX to close near ₹1,58,670 per 10 grams.
Trivedi highlighted that crude oil prices witnessed significant profit booking during the week, correcting nearly 7% from recent highs. This correction helped ease global inflationary concerns. Additionally, the Indian rupee recovered from weaker levels of 97 against the US dollar to strengthen near 95.70, which limited further upside momentum in domestic gold prices despite stable international bullion trends.
Internationally, Comex gold futures ended the week 1% lower at $4,523.2 per ounce, while silver futures slipped nearly 2% to $76.20 per ounce. Mer commented, “Gold prices moved in a consolidative range over the past few sessions, but ended the week with a marginal loss. Prices were steady amid a lack of fresh direction in the market -- be it on the economy front or the US-Iran war front.”
Uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical situation continues to keep markets on edge, particularly as statements from both Washington and Tehran have frequently shifted. On Sunday, former US President Donald Trump claimed on Truth Social that an agreement between the US and Iran aimed at reducing tensions in the Gulf region and reopening the Strait of Hormuz was close to being finalised. He stated that the deal had been “largely negotiated” and that only final formalities remained. However, Iranian media disputed Trump’s remarks regarding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that Tehran would continue to maintain control over the strategically vital waterway. Analysts suggest that these contrasting positions are likely to keep bullion prices sensitive to any new developments emerging from the region.
Meanwhile, market participants are expected to monitor comments from Federal Reserve officials as they assess the evolving economic landscape, which includes geopolitical tensions, market volatility, and persistent inflation pressures. The coming week promises to be a critical period for precious metals, with investors balancing geopolitical risks against macroeconomic data and central bank signals.
