•Strong El Niño forecasted for late 2026 or winter may weaken before India’s 2027 monsoon season, according to IMD and meteorologists.
•Historical El Niño events like 1997–98 and 2015–16 typically peak around year-end and weaken before the monsoon begins.
•IMD official warns that while subsurface cooling signals suggest a possible transition to neutral or La Niña, long-range forecasts have higher uncertainty.
•GP Sharma of Skymet notes that stronger El Niño events do not always correlate with severe monsoon impacts, as outcomes vary widely.
•Former IITM director R Krishnan cites 1997 as an example where a strong El Niño did not result in a drought, transitioning to La Niña by mid-1998.
•El Niño can disrupt India’s monsoon, leading to weaker rainfall and crop stress, while La Niña generally enhances monsoon performance.
•Experts conclude that the 2027 monsoon impact cannot be judged solely on El Niño strength due to historical variability and other climate factors.
Pune, India – Meteorologists and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have indicated that a strong El Niño event predicted to develop by late 2026 or winter could weaken significantly before India’s 2027 monsoon season, potentially easing concerns over its impact on seasonal rainfall.
An IMD official explained that historical data from major El Niño events since 1951—such as the 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16 episodes—show a consistent pattern: these events typically intensify during the second half of their first year, peak around the year-end or early next year, and then weaken before the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in June. For example, during the 1997–98 El Niño, sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific rose from 1.6°C in June–July–August to a peak of about 2.4°C in October–November–December. By mid-1998, the event had weakened and transitioned into La Niña conditions.
Similarly, during the 2015–16 El Niño, ocean temperatures increased from 1.6°C in June–July–August to over 2°C later in the year. By the time the 2016 monsoon arrived, the El Niño had already weakened.
The IMD official stated, “Strong El Niño reaches peak strength towards the end of the year or early the next year and then weakens. Before the following monsoon, it often becomes neutral or shifts towards La Niña, which is what we expect in 2027.” The official also noted that subsurface cooling signals over the western Pacific are emerging and may indicate a shift toward neutral or La Niña conditions next year. However, the official cautioned that long-range forecasts carry higher uncertainty, as forecast skill declines with longer lead times.
Speaking to TOI, GP Sharma, President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet, emphasized that the intensity of an El Niño event does not always correlate with the severity of its impact on India’s monsoon. “The degree of El Niño does not matter much. Weaker El Niño events have coincided with drought years, while stronger ones have not always produced severe impacts,” Sharma said. He added that among six very strong El Niño events since 1950, outcomes varied widely—including one severe drought, two moderate droughts, two normal monsoons, and one below-normal year—highlighting the role of other climatic factors.
Former director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), R Krishnan, supported this view, citing the 1997 event as a key example. “In 1997, concerns had emerged because a very strong El Niño was developing, but India eventually saw a normal monsoon. By July the following year, it had already transitioned towards La Niña,” Krishnan said.
El Niño refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which can disrupt global weather patterns. For India, it often leads to weaker monsoon currents, patchy rainfall, crop stress, and pressure on water reservoirs. Its counterpart, La Niña, involves cooler Pacific waters and generally strengthens monsoon circulation, often resulting in above-normal rainfall across the subcontinent.
While a strong El Niño may persist into early 2027, experts say historical patterns do not support the assumption that peak conditions would continue into the monsoon season. Instead, the likelihood of weakening or a transition to La Niña suggests that the ultimate impact on India’s 2027 monsoon remains uncertain and cannot be determined solely by the expected strength of the El Niño event.
