Rising Internal Conflict in Iran: President Pajeshkian Resigns, Is the US Gaining an Advantage?

The ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Iran and the US have yet to yield a ceasefire or a concrete agreement. Meanwhile, a new development within Iran has caught everyone's attention. Masoud Pajeshkian, the successor to Iran's President Ibrahim Raisi, has allegedly submitted his resignation to the office of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This news comes at a time when diplomatic efforts between Iran and the US have seen no significant progress amidst long-standing tensions. According to sources, Pajeshkian's resignation letter explicitly criticizes the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a key military unit in Iran. The letter states that Iran's administrative system has deviated from the rules, and certain IRGC commanders have control over national decisions. Pajeshkian alleges that the government has been isolated from national decisions, rendering it unable to govern effectively. However, the IRGC-affiliated news agency Tasnim has denied the resignation report, but there is growing concern in diplomatic circles. The conflict within Iran's internal situation has arisen due to several factors. Former US President Donald Trump claims that Iran's leadership is rudderless. Trump asserts that the IRGC has extensive powers, including border security, cyberattack defense, missile development, and conducting military operations through proxies in neighboring countries. In contrast, the government's powers are limited, primarily focusing on managing the economy, handling oil revenue, establishing diplomatic relations, and strengthening education and healthcare systems. This division of authority has led to constant clashes between the two sides. The IRGC's primary priorities have been promoting national interests and regional influence, making it challenging for the government to conduct foreign policy. Specifically, the IRGC's focus on intelligence and defense activities has negatively impacted the country's internal situation and economy. The government's liberal faction wants to ease the uranium agreement with the US to save the country's economy, while the IRGC's hardline faction opposes this. As a result, the Trump administration has added several conditions to the ongoing negotiations with Iran, including destroying uranium stocks and opening the Hormuz Strait to international ships. Recent military tensions between the US and Iran have further complicated the situation. Iran claims to have shot down a US MQ-1 drone, prompting the US to attack Iranian radar stations and command centers. In response, the IRGC launched missiles at a US airbase near Kuwait. Nevertheless, Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir-Abdollahian has clarified that diplomatic negotiations with the US are ongoing, and any agreement will only be reached when the US presents an official proposal. He dismissed media speculations as baseless. The primary question surrounding this entire episode is whether the US strategy to pressure Iran is succeeding or if this is a result of the internal conflict within Iran. Experts believe that the situation's outcome depends on either Pajeshkian's resignation being accepted or the US and Iran reaching a concrete agreement. For now, Iran's political and strategic situation remains extremely delicate, with the global community closely watching developments in the coming days.